A third of the world's children and adolescents forecast to be overweight or obese by 2050
Due to “substantial change” predicted from 2022 and 2030, researchers call for “immediate actions needed to address this public health crisis”.
A recently published report on global obesity has highlighted a huge rise in numbers of young people who could be overweight or obese over the next quarter of a century.
Researchers predict that by 2050, around one in three children and young people living with obesity (130 million) will be in just two regions – north Africa and the Middle East and Latin America and the Caribbean – that could have major health, economic and societal consequences.
The study warned that children everywhere are gaining weight faster than previous generations and obesity is occurring earlier, increasing the risk of type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure, heart disease and cancer from a younger age.
Researchers said: “Despite the well documented consequences of obesity during childhood and adolescence and future risks of excess body mass on non-communicable diseases in adulthood, coordinated global action on excess body mass in early life is still insufficient.
“Inconsistent measurement and reporting are a barrier to specific targets, resource allocation, and interventions.”
For the study researchers used established methodology from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021, and modelled overweight and obesity figures across childhood and adolescence from 1990 to 2021 and then forecasted up to 2050.
The results of the study, funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, were recently published in The Lancet.
Researchers said: “Both overweight and obesity increased substantially in every world region between 1990 and 2021, suggesting that current approaches to curbing increases in overweight and obesity have failed a generation of children and adolescents.
“Beyond 2021, overweight during childhood and adolescence is forecast to stabilise due to further increases in the population who have obesity. Increases in obesity are expected to continue for all populations in all world regions. Because substantial change is forecasted to occur between 2022 and 2030, immediate actions are needed to address this public health crisis.”
In high-income countries, the report said that around 7% of men born in the 1960s were obese by the time they were 25. Researchers found this increased to 16% for men born in the 1990s and predicted to reach 25% for men born in 2015.
According to the report, in the UK, it is predicted that among children aged five to 14, obesity will rise from 12% of girls in 2021 to 18.4% in 2050, and from 9.9% to 15.5% in boys over the same period.
Nearly a quarter of the world’s obese adult population in 2050 are forecast to be aged 65 or above, that is expected to add to pressure on already overburdened healthcare systems and risks more serious consequences for services in low-resource countries.
Researchers concluded: “Historically, undernutrition in very young children has been a major priority for governments and donors throughout low and low middle income countries (LMICs).
“Undernutrition requires continued investments, but global nutritional priorities must expand to include excess weight in children and adolescents. The urgency to address this comes from the timing in the transition of weight patterns from overweight to obesity predominance. Many LMICs have a short window in which investments in the overnutrition agenda will be most effective.
“Importantly, these interventions do not need to be at the expense of addressing undernutrition. To ensure timely policy responses, these forecasted estimates on both the timing and speed of regional-level and country-level transitions can facilitate priority setting and enable governing bodies to monitor progress.
“Because the rise in obesity is forecasted to continue throughout the world, political commitment to transform the diets of all children and adolescents within sustainable global food systems is now urgent.
“Delivered through multisectoral actions, effective multicomponent strategies targeting the multiple drivers of obesity (eg, nutrition, activity, lifestyle, and environment) are needed.”
Researchers noted some limitations to the study, including that predictions were constrained by the quantity and quality of past data; and the potential impact of emerging interventions, such as weight-loss drugs, were not considered in their findings.
The report findings coincided with the publication of another document highlighting the issue of rising global obesity.
The World Obesity Atlas published by the World Obesity Federation, warned that the impact of obesity would be felt worst in poorer countries.
In the forward to the report Simón Barquera, President, World Obesity Federation and Johanna Ralston CEO, World Obesity Federation, said: “On present trends, overweight and obesity will affect nearly 3 billion adults (some 50% of the world’s adult population) by 2030. There are also concerning rises in the number of adults with obesity who will likely need medical intervention in their lifetime, with serious implications for health systems.
“Obesity is a disease and a major driver of noncommunicable diseases including some types of cancers, heart disease, stroke, and type 2 diabetes.
“No single intervention can halt the rise of the growing obesity epidemic. We are critically examining the systems underlying obesity and NCDs and calling for structural change to create healthier lives for all. We must work together to call for comprehensive change, with people living with obesity leading the way.”
Read the report in The Lancet
Read the World Obesity Atlas
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